A good article on growth

Growth is a choice, not our destiny

 

Vancouver can lead the way by bending the population curve

 

BY GORDON GIBSON, VANCOUVER SUN AUGUST 13, 2012

 

 

The currently received wisdom is that Vancouver should be the greenest place on earth. Very good. Hold that thought. But then dig further and consider real green leadership.

The underlying motive from this point of view is the limitation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It goes without saying, though it is hardly ever said because it is so politically incorrect, that the basic driver of human-caused greenhouse gases is the number of people. 

Fewer people, less gas. More people, more gas.

In particular, more people in the developed world means way more gas because of our higher standard of living. Each new resident of Vancouver is going to use a lot more carbon than a new resident of China or Egypt.

The United Nations says that the world population is going to grow another 50 per cent before peaking out (maybe) at nine billion. Any way you slice it, that is going to mean a lot more greenhouse gas. It is obvious: a way needs to be found to deal with population growth.

Now, most of this population growth is not coming in the developed world. Europe and Japan are actually shrinking in natural growth and the United States is barely holding its own. The less developed world is exploding both in numbers and in carbon use per capita. There is where the real greenhouse challenge lies. Our little Canadian contribution is hardly even a rounding error.

There is a real exception to the growth patterns of the developed world and it is right here in Metro Vancouver. Our high-carbon population is growing very quickly. Is this a "green" contribution to the world? Hardly.

Add up all of the above and it is as simple as this: We are going to have find ways to change the fundamental growth assumption of recent civilization and invent a viable path to an economically and culturally sustain-able steady state world. Why shouldn't Vancouver do that?

Inventing a "soft landing" response to growth cannot be done in shrinking Japan, or Sweden or Russia. It is too late. The population changes there pose terrifying challenges, both in financing the care of the old and maintaining the dynamism of the young.

But because we are still on an upward path in Vancouver, we could realistically plan ways to gradually bend the population growth curve down to a steady state over the next few decades without building a demo-graphic time bomb.

Showing that kind of leadership would mean starting now, and it would mean a plan - because it would not happen by itself. Left to current trends, current philosophies, our growth curve will continue rising. And that has serious implications.

Anyone who travels out of Vancouver on the Trans-Canada Highway cannot but be awed by the scale of the work being done on that route. Any-one who watches TransLink agonizing over how to finance the response to growth has to worry. Anyone looking at the scale of condominium development in Metro Vancouver has to be astounded. Anyone looking at the recent announcements on new hospital financing and extrapolating to the future has to be some worried. Bending the growth curve down makes financing much, much easier.

However, it also has industrial implications so important that it will have to be done gradually. We are a region hugely dependent upon construction employment. That will need to slowly change as younger workers gravitate to Alberta or to different occupations. But if we plan this well, current tradespeople need not lose.

Most construction work, by definition, is not "steady state." We - the private sector mainly, but incented by governments - are going to have to develop new sorts of production and employment if we truly want such a world.

None of this means challenging the "green" thinking of the current crop of politicians in control of metro city halls. Rather it calls upon them to think much more deeply and much further into the future - bending down that growth curve - if we want to show real leadership.

Who particularly needs that? Not the developed world, which will increasingly be faced either with the unpleasant problems of actual population decline, or such major immigration as to change the shape of their societies and again bump up green-house gas production.

It is the developing world that could use such an example, because - for different reasons than Vancouver - they are early enough on the greenhouse curve that a comfortable bending down of growth remains an option.

It comes down to this: With our municipal control over zoning and density, population growth is a choice, not a destiny. It is something that we must control, or it will control us. It is time to replace green lite with deep green.

ggibson@bc-home.com Gordon Gibson is a public policy commentator based in Vancouver.

© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun

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Ivan Leonard on the increase of Citizen Engagement

Consider this unique idea folks, a Government with no opposition. Unthinkable?  Yes! Yet that is exactly what our City Governments are. What they decide becomes law. The difference being each Councillor is, or should be; free to express his or her own individual independent opinion, where the majority vote counts. With the intrusion of the ‘Slate,’ partisanship has removed a full council of independent voices. But, whereas senior governments face an elected opposition each time an issue is voted upon, Municipal Councils only face the very Citizens that elected them when an opportunity is specifically afforded the public to be heard. While much of that opposition is expounded in letters to the editors or in local coffee shops, there are associations, groups in most neighbourhoods that become the voices of the citizens, and who confront Council as the unofficial opposition.

For instance, The Lonsdale Citizens Association (TLCA) was formed practically overnight, in 1987, by citizens outraged with shock that their ‘City government’ approved 30 towers of 29 storeys to be built in the lower Lonsdale area. The Council backed down in the face of furious opposition from the community. Only one tower managed to be built. The Association maintained an active role from then on. Another momentous occasion occurred in 2008 when they led community and stopped the “iconic” 450 ft tower from darkening the waterfront and the whole of the Lower Lonsdale neighbourhood.

Associations are kept simmering by a strange breed of citizens that attend Council meetings and have been named Council Watchers. But, when a community feels pressured by Council and becomes aroused, Associations come alive, as is presently happening right now. The communities feel threatened by all the construction and density erupting around them, so the Council Watchers suddenly become activists, educators and protectors of their communities.  Recently the Low Road Project alarmed the community to such an extent that the project was delayed by two years and almost redesigned. Without the formation of a well organized community Association one can only wonder what the new road would have done to the neighbourhood.

The largest project yet to come before our City government came before Council Monday night, June 18th. The North Shore News had headlined a letter to the editor days earlier “Mega Project needs Mega Opposition”.  Without these Council Watchers cum Activists informing the communities and lighting the torch of action, Council would have just approved the developer’s request, and no one would have been aware of any of the issues the City will face when 2000 more people become residents of our little city, all the result of just a single vote of yeas and nays. No one would have known how the councillors voted. That is often the reason why the same names end up in the Council seats election after election.

Councillors are constantly confronted with projects where the developer has attached councillor’s pet ideas forcing discussions to focus on minor incidentals and ignoring the greater needs of the community. Associations will aggressively refocus the discussions to the citizen’s point of view where livability is their major concern.

Citizens face new buildings blocking their view, casting shadows across living rooms at midday and vehicles plugging their street. They suddenly notice it’s taking half an hour longer to get home, construction slowing more and more traffic and their favourite store is gone or their quiet green space isn’t quiet any more. They face the realization that their mortgage is only half paid while their view is also half gone and their taxes keep going up. The next rent increase will mean having to find a cheaper place to live.  

Because these Council Watchers helped to keep the Associations members informed, last Monday’s Council meeting was held before a packed Council Chamber and a full lobby. The Public Hearing of the Harbourside project lasted over 4 hours with more than 30 well prepared and knowledgeable speakers presenting many important and unresolved issues, offering sound opinions in opposition to the project.

As in all governments, some members will respond to citizens documented and informed opinions, while others will reject them. Such was the case in this instance. The opposition was defeated 5-2. This was the vote they had expected. But whereas the Chambers would have been empty without the opposition, the Citizens are now fully aware of all the issues and how the Councillors voted. They now feel connected with a greater awareness of their own Community and the thinking of their City Council. What was most enlightening was that the Council Chambers were still half full of citizens when the vote was taken at 11:15 p.m.

The Mega Project did receive a Mega Opposition. Sadly, the decision was made long before the doors ever opened.

Ivan Leonard

A warning from The Lonsdale Community Assn on Harbourside

ONLY CITIZENS PARTICIPATION WILL STOP THE RUSH TO BUILD.


Citizens need to fill City Hall and let the Council
understand that Taxpayers want to stop this density and development frenzy and take a breath.
Today the Government has announced a new policy on mortgages that should slow down the Growth.


On June 25 at 7 pm Concert properties is applying for an OCP amendment to change the current zoning of Light industrial and Commercial to also include Residential.


They are applying to build 880 suites in 7 and 9 storey towers along the last vestiges of waterfront property the City has remaining.


We believe that no one should claim ownership of Waterfront property especially as the present narrow strip is designated park, half of which is a dog park and the Spirit Trail. Ownership of waterfront property should remain in the realm of the City’s taxpayers as a whole, in perpetuity.


It’s rather a stretch of the imagination to pack 2000 people and more with their cars in this stand-alone community, all trying to share one humpback bridge over the railway tracks at Fell Ave, with all the present office people and Auto Mall people. We have also been informed that wheelchairs find it too difficult to traverse this bridge. Hmm! Considering that within a 2 short block radius of this humpback bridge there are 7 traffic lights which include 2 on Marine Drive; the pending grid lock staggers the imagination.


That said, the added traffic from the $8 Billion Seaspan shipbuilding project, plus the nine 5 and 6 storey buildings all in various stages of completion over the next 6 months to 2 years, and all within 3 blocks of the Fell Ave. bridge, suggests to me that our Planning Dept has given up and left town.


Would not this amount of people demand some amenities such as a recreation centre, a school, daycare etc.? But who will pay for that; the City of course, we Taxpayers.
Concert Properties has said they have no intention of building another bridge, meaning it’s up to the City, or better still the taxpayers, to pay for a bridge for them. But they did say they will build a ferry pier to ferry people to the SeaBus? Why do I get the impression that developers think Citizens are just dumb? Translink has done studies for years on ferries back and forth all along the Northshore and downtown. It doesn’t work, Period. West Van’s effort last year went bankrupt.


CN rail intends to close the grade rail crossing on Bewicke in 2-3 years when the new humongous long Phosphorous trains begin to arrive; that is also the reason for the new LOW ROAD Project. CN needs the added tracking for faster turnaround for the longer trains. That means there will only be one bridge in and out of Harbourside. CN has already agreed with the District to build a bridge over the tracks at Phillips Ave two blocks West of Pemberton.


The Pemberton rail crossing will then be closed. Don’t forget in 7 years time the new SEWAGE plant will be built at that junction where the rail station is located.


So the City will be stuck trying to find the money to build a Bridge, somewhere. That is not possible, unless it's built to span the Rail tracks and Mosquito Creek for about $100 Million. And do all this, just to satisfy a developer, who will make $100 Million in property value just by having Council approve Residential construction on our Waterfront. There certainly seems to be something wrong with this picture. It doesn’t appear that we’ll be getting the new Harry Jerome Community Centre for a while yet.


But that is only a part of the problem. Look at all the DENSITY already planned and already happening, such as the Credit union Tower at 13th (ONNI - 2 towers at 13th), the Extra Foods tower at 17th and the enormous tower at West 15th. There are 8 new projects of 5 and 7 storeys from 3rd St down to 1st St and along 2nd and along 1st in the Lower Lonsdale area. Also, we must not ignore the dozens of duplexes and Coach Houses that are approved by Council every month.


As Councillor Keating continues to say, and repeated last week at Council, Manhattan is the finest example of a Sustainable Community. What he will never say is that it’s because it has the finest and most extensive subway system in America supporting it. Councillor Keating and our Mayor still insist that the City is only growing by 1% annually. With all this growth we are presently far ahead of the designated growth rate determined by Metro Vancouver’s Regional Growth Plan 2040. It’s been calculated that if we continue this rate until 2040 we will have the same density as Downtown Athens and Tokyo. That is our little City of North Vancouver!!


Our Hospital has only 335 beds and is the main Hospital for the Regional Area that stretches as far as Powell River. How can we afford all the necessary infrastructure? We are not building any more roads; in fact we are making them smaller and replacing them with bicycle lanes. So why this Development frenzy, this Density madness? Well I guess we now know the answer.


The Parks Master plan was passed a couple of years ago which establishes a ratio of Green space to developed space. A present as the Density increases the Green space declines, and it’s way down. The City actually has $16 million in the Parks Acquisition Fund so, in fact, could but back land from Harbourside for Park use.


In a major announcement today by the Government, it has now said “Whoa, slow down.” Mortgage terms have been shortened to 25-30 years from 45 years. The sad thing about that is it will only hurt the young people. How can our younger generation afford to live in these 1,2,3 bedroom suites along Harbourside? Will Concert Properties then have to sell their suites to offshore buyers who will then then leave them empty like Pinnacle and half of all the Condos in the Lower Mainland?


The City MUST start thinking creatively and ensure that the young CAN afford to live here. We need to have discussions with new thinkers and innovators. Not simply GIVE the CITY away because Planners and Councillors have no ideas. Council, if they had the balls, should be searching for creative ways to house the young and rent to the young.


With projects like this Harbourside, our younger generation will be shaking their heads and wondering what kind of legacy their parents and grandparent have left them. What were they thinking? WHY DID they BUY up all the Waterfront and Build, Build, Build and Sell, Sell, Sell to offshore buyers.


OUR Council should step in and shrink the project down to half this size, and then build only on the road one block north. They should include small bachelor suites for younger single people. Change the purpose of the project from the Banks and Major Developers reaping in the goodies, to the Citizens of the North Shore and no one else. 


After all, this project is financed by UNION PENSION FUNDS, and what are unions for if not for people? They certainly fork out a great deal of money to fund half our Council at Election time. THE REST OF THE COUNCILLOR’S SLATE MONEY, OF COURSE, COMES FROM DEVELOPERS.


So what does that say for the morals and ethics of our democratic and judicial system? No wonder only 17% bother to vote!


Well I believe in finding and fighting for solutions and fixing what is broken, this is the era of RECYCLING after all.


Gee what a thought. That should be OUR legacy to our young Citizens. Leave them our Waterfront AND a Place to Live and a Recycled moral and ethical Council that use their own money at election times as some of our Councillors have done. Can you imagine how that would upset the applecart? Can you imagine how our Councillors would respond to that idea?


Please attend Council Monday at 7 pm. and bring a friend or neighbour. It’s our City we’re trying to save.
Ivan Leonard

House of Cards

One day some guys named Darryl, Craig and Richard were sitting around in their clubhouse with a few packs of cards but somehow they didn't have a full deck.  So Richard pipes up "why don't we build a house of cards, I bet we can build the tallest one in the whole wide world!"


Soon they ran out of cards and the house was not large enough for them. Alas, the trio didn't have any money. Craig chipped in, "Why don't we just buy more cards? I'm sure we can get some provincial and federal government money."


Unfortunately, the governments were broke having spent their all money and all the money they could borrow.


Darryl came the rescue with an idea, "I've got lots of friends with money, maybe they donate to us so we can buy some more cards."


So Darryl called his buddy Chuck who was instantly on board with the concept but said, "You guys are pikers, you don't think big enough.  I'll donate money, the construction unions will toss some in and we'll hire lots of staff to write reports on the proper way to build our house.  It will be a landmark! 


Of course Chuck had a plan he didn't tell the boys, once done he would sell the house to Donald Trump and make gazzillions of dollars and just start up a new unique landmark and another and another....

18 June Council Meeting

Link to Agenda