The 2014 Election as it starts forming up (Part one)

Nominations don't close until about late September of next year but it looks like we in the City of North Van will be presented with the opportunity to change the status quo or continue with politics here being stuck in a time lock.

This article builds on material in Parties-slates and independents? and  in A recap and analysis of the council election of 2011.  One of the fundamental aspects I've focused on is really there are two NDP dominated groups that dominate CNV politics

The Mayoral race

Let's start off with the obvious, Mayor Mussatto will run again and likely win. VOICES candidate Rod Clark will run for Councillor after an inappropriate outburst during Council. Two years ago he had said he was running for Mayor.  VOICES will (wants to)  run someone, possibility Ron Polly again although I think that a Council run where he has a chance of winning is more likely. I think they will be desperate to find candidates. Unite North Van will do its nominations in May but is not actively seeking a Mayoral candidate but if someone applies who has the credentials and experience to run for Mayor, one may be approved.

It is likely that Mussatto will be acclaimed once again. In 2008, when he was acclaimed, Mayor elect Mussatto ran a full campaign with tens of thousands in donations and spending. Donations started the day after he had been acclaimed.  Why the pretense?  Is it even legal to have a person who is not a candidate portrayed as a candidate running in the election to be voted on?  In the past elections have been with the no outside independent supervision.  The province is now putting in laws to put Elections BC in charge of elections so challenges to our City Clerk who wears the Chief Electoral Officer hat for elections can now be made. I will challenge anyone who is acclaimed being treated as candidate running in the election.

Retirements?

I tend not to believe when told by a third party that a Councillor is not running and nothing is ever firm until the close of nominations.  But it is safe to state that Pam Bookham is retiring, I know she almost didn't run last time and was talked into another term by the VOICES people who didn't want to lose one of their Councillors.

Another probable resignation is Guy Heywood who is likely running for the Federal Liberal nomination to run against Andrew Saxton. The nomination should be just after the municipal election and perhaps he feels it would be  unseemly to commit for another 3 year municipal term and then immediately run federally with aim of resigning and causing an expensive byelection. But on the other side of the coin, Don Bell did it in 2004 and Craig Keating tried to do last May.   But I've also heard that Heywood may run in the District as well so there are competing rumours. Ten months prior to the close of nominations gives a lot of time to change one's mind, or to focus it.

The NDP slate

So lets look at the two political parties that dominate the CNV Council, first the Mayor's slate and other strongly left wing candidates.  They will run five candidates as usual in their seemingly endless quest to gain a majority on Council so they can completely implement their socialist NDP agenda since the brass ring of Provincial Government is likely forever out of their reach.  It is not too much of a stretch to say that Councillors Keating and Buchanan will run and only 150 votes back from a Council seat will motivate Cheryl Leia to make third try.  It looks like they will be joined by Franci Stratton a District School Board trustee, Scott McMyn and Evonne Strohwald. Perhaps Mary Trentadue will re-enter

Other NDPers and other assorted left wingers that may step up but not likely on the Mayor's slate, is Pam Bookham which I think will retire instead, Ivan Leonard, Tyler Russell of the Urban Forum and Michael Charrois - even with the failure of the pot decriminalization referendum that won't even go to a vote.  Ron Sostad may advance his C.O.P.E. cause by running in a legally registered Party along with some fellow hard core socialists and even communists.

The Green Party may run led by Ryan Conway, the Green candidate for the last provincial election and should register as well, putting the Green Party name on the actual ballot. There should be at least one other candidate with the Greens.  Why should Adrienne Carr have all the fun?

So even if the Mayor does not register as Vision North Van or some other name like Victoria's NDP Victoria Civic Electors, there should be at least 3 elector organizations with a name on the ballot.  There is more chance that Mussatto and Keating will see the opportunity and register than the Voices people would want to come out of the shadows.